Sentiment is increasingly bearish (for contrarians a bullish sign), but nowhere near a bottom, and thus lower prices, given the technical trends are likely in the future. Further, valuations are far not even close to a bottom. Much lower prices ahead.

6:44 PM · Oct 26, 2023

The break at the end of July has materialized in a new bear market downtrend confirmed by first the failed rally in September followed by the break several days ago below the 200 DMA at 422 on the SPY. Support is somewhat at 410, but below that are the old October lows of 350.

6:40 PM · Oct 26, 2023

SPY: 445 resistance taken out. 455 is minor resistance. Old recovery highs at 460 are now major resistance. The trend, while recently breaking below the 50DMA is still up. This rally to prospectively old highs is a critical test.

1:30 PM · Aug 29, 2023

Major SPY support is 420-425. Resistance very clearly at 445. No real short term trend likely until after Labor Day holidays. The trading range (and possible bear flag pattern) continues. A take out of 420 support would be extremely bearish regardless of sentiment.

5:21 PM · Aug 28, 2023

No surprise that Bullish sentiment was the highest in several years in mid July and the SPY rally peaked out at 460. Nevertheless, the pullback so far has been shallow and sentiment is quickly turning bearish again. Thus a short term trading range from 433 to 445 has developed.

5:19 PM · Aug 28, 2023

In our July 28 post, we mentioned a turn in the trend could be in the offing as SPY 460 is/was a very formidable resistance. The trend has indeed turned, taking out the 443-444 support level. 443 is now resistance and support lies at about 420. The decline will be a grind.

11:07 AM · Aug 18, 2023

Goldman Sachs Blames Zero-Day Options for Fueling S&P 500 Selloff

bloomberg.com

6:02 AM · Aug 17, 2023

In our July 13 tweet, we noted major resistance on the SPY at 460, and upon touching that area yesterday, the markets sold off sharply. The trend is up, but 460 is very formidable, and future rally success is critical for the trend to survive, or a turn could be in the offing.

10:58 AM · Jul 28, 2023

After holding 440 support, SPY has broken out to new recovery highs. The uptrend is still in effect. Our number one rule: "The trend is your friend". Don't fight the tape. Minor resistance at 449, more major resistance at 460.

12:48 PM · Jul 13, 2023

SPY 440 is now minor resistance, with 445 a double top resistance. Trend is still up.

6:00 PM · Jul 6, 2023

SPY hanging at 445 for a week now, above our 440 resistance level and as such, 440 now becomes support.

1:59 AM · Jul 6, 2023

The aforementioned resistance level of 440 on the SPY is still in force as the most recent rally has been rebuffed from that area. Higher rates still seem to be in the future, and while the SPY trend is up, the trend may be weakening in light of that unexpected rate possibility.

9:53 AM · Jun 21, 2023

Again, as mentioned since last October, the rally is tradeable and likely part of a long term trading range to test old highs. Inflation was in vogue during the 1970's and so were trading ranges for 8 years until 1982.

8:03 PM · Jun 12, 2023

The trend is your friend. The trend is up, and the SPY and QQQ, in taking out resistance levels repectively at 430 and 333, are sparking even more short covering, thus fueling more upside.

8:01 PM · Jun 12, 2023

QQQ support at 10 DMA of 349 has held for 45 days. A move and close below this support would likely spark selling. QQQ is very over extended in its uptrend.

10:44 AM · Jun 8, 2023

While rates could possibly come back some, a drop in corporate profits will more than offset that valuation metric and the rally could run out of steam if profits do indeed drop and or forecasts are for a drop after second quarter.

10:41 AM · Jun 8, 2023

SPY resistance actually at 430 which represents Aug 2022 pivot. QQQ has taken out Aug 2022 pivot largely in part due to NVDA and AAPL rallies. For rally to continue and take out resistance, broader participation is necessary.

10:39 AM · Jun 8, 2023

We waited to comment to see if the breakout above 417-418 held, and it has. The trend, albeit a slow move, is up. Support is now at 417. Resistance levels are near 440, 450, and 470. The trend is up and for some FANG+ stocks, there is no resistance. Overall, limited upside.

7:30 PM · Jun 6, 2023